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Friday, 11 March 2011

Gaddafi and his regime will survive

I don't like what I hear of the man but I think he's going to win. Unlike some of the recently departed leaders of nearby states, he's kept his nerve and doesn't worry too much about his image.

The rhetoric from the EU and NATO is all mouth and he knows it. The chances of any effective intervention is remote:
  • Effective intervention is pretty difficult
  • A strong and nasty leader of Libya provides stability and certainty that our governments prefer to the uncertain alternatives.

Telling him to stand down is simply playing to the gallery. He's got very good reasons to fight to the last man. There is no safe bolt-hole for him and his sizable family. To stand down is suicidal - or at the very least a route to a jail cell for the rest of his life.

It may take some time but he's going to mop up this rebellion and kill a lot of people. He has no reason to do otherwise and it's unlikely anyone will give him one.

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